10 Bold Predictions for 2017

All ADP data is from FantasyPros. All end of season rankings will come from ESPN’s Player Rater.

1) Maikel Franco finishes as a top 8 3B

Franco is currently going as the 17^th 3B. The Phillies should be an improved team on offense with the addition of Michael Saunders and Howie Kendrick and a full season of Tommy Joseph. Franco should see a bump in R and RBI and I’m confident that he is going to set career highs in both categories. Franco should be in line for an average bump as well after his BABIP dropped to .271 in 2016. If he can drop his IFFB rate (16.4% career) he could jump his average 30+ points compared to the .255 in 2016. Statcast doesn’t love Franco which is a concern but there are a lot of signs pointing to a breakout fantasy season from Franco.

2) Tim Anderson beats Addison Russell on the player rater for standard leagues

Both are gaining momentum as fantasy assets but Russell is going over 80 spots higher in drafts (123 for Russel and 207 for Anderson). The only categories I’m confident that Russell can win are HR and RBI and I think the HRs might be closer than most think. Anderson should have a sizeable lead in R (due to leading off the White Sox lineup) and SB and he figures to beat Russell by 20-30 points in AVG. Anderson has 15/25 upside with a .270 AVG and a healthy R total while Russell remains a negative in two categories (SB and AVG).

3) At least two of Keon Broxton, Eric Thames and Domingo Santana crack the top 35 for OF

There is major risk with all three players but there is also major upside. Currently all three are going outside of the top 50: Broxton 51^st, Thames 58^th and Santana 80^th. Broxton ranked 5^th in the majors last year in exit velocity for players who had at least 200 pitches recorded. Domingo Santana was 14^th on the same list. Both pummel the ball when they make contact. Broxton is an AVG risk but if it comes with 20 HR and 30 SB it’s not as big of a deal. He also figures to chip in a solid R and RBI total if he can hold the #2 spot in the lineup. Santana had 11 dingers in 281 PA last year. The power is real and he could have 30 HR upside in Miller. He should have a full time slot this year and I think a breakout is coming. The AVG might not be pretty but a good RBI total and potentially even a few SBs make him a worthy late round gamble.

Thames is the total wildcard here with a very mediocre MLB track record but a Barry Bonds-esque stint in the KBO. He’ll likely be the 1B for the Brewers but will qualify in the OF. Thames obviously won’t repeat his KBO numbers but hitting 4^th in what figures to be a decent lineup should give him decent contextual stats at the very least with the upside for a lot more if that power carries over

4) Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are the most valuable SPs on their respective teams

Another way to phrase this is that I think deGrom (14^th) beats Syndergaard (4^th) and Carrasco (15^th) beats Kluber (6^th). deGrom appears to be healthy after an up and down 2016. His 3.47 xFIP doesn’t point to much upside but deGrom pitched with elbow discomfort for a lot of 2016 and that certainly affected his output. I think deGrom bounces back to near 2015 levels. Syndergaard is an excellent pitcher but I’m worried about the arm. He throws so hard that his risk has to be higher for injury and given the multiple scares last year I’m trying to stay away. If Syndergaard stays healthy he’ll win this battle but I really can’t see him pitching 180+ IP again.

Corey Kluber is a beast and I see him putting up numbers similar to last year when he was the 8^th overall SP but I think this is finally the year Carrasco makes it to 190 IP and turns in a Cy Young-level performance. His xFIP increased to 3.32 last year and his SwStr rate decreased but he’s still a very good pitcher and could make adjustments to return both of those numbers to pre-2016 levels.

5) The Cubs won’t have a single SP crack the top 12.

Last year the Cubs had three pitchers in the top 11: Lester 3^rd, Hendricks 7^th and Arrieta 11^th. These three are currently going 7^th (Arrieta), 8^th (Lester) and 17^th (Hendricks). I don’t think any of the three have repeats of 2016. The Cubs defense is still amazing but can they be otherworldly two years in a row? Willson Contreras is a decent framer but he’s far behind what Miguel Montero did in 2016. Does Jon Lester struggle without David Ross? Not to mention that each SP greatly outperformed their FIPs and xFIPs last year.

Name	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Jake Arrieta	3.1	3.52	3.68
Jon Lester	2.44	3.41	3.47
Kyle Hendricks	2.13	3.2	3.59

I think all three will be useable SPs, in particular with their W upside, but I wouldn’t draft any of the three at their current rate.

Just so this doesn’t come off as Cardinals bias, here is a positive prediction for the Cubs. Mike Montgomery is at least the 4^th best Cubs SP on the player rater this year.

6) Brad Hand leads the Padres in saves

Brad Hand gets no love for the closer job. Brandon Maurer has the job currently, Ryan Buchter is considered next in line and Carter Capps is widely considered to grab the CP job as soon as he’s healthy. Why no love for Brad Hand? His 2016 stats were excellent.

Name	K%	BB%	HR/FB	SwStr%	ERA	xFIP
Brandon Maurer	24	7.7	8.3	11.6	4.52	4.16
Ryan Buchter	31.6	12.6	5.1	9.3	2.86	4.33
Brad Hand	30.5	9.9	10.4	12.2	2.92	3.34

Brad Hand is a lefty and has the worst HR rate but he also has the best stuff now that he’s a full-time reliever. I think Hand is the best pitcher on this team now that Carter Capps’s delivery is outlawed. We don’t know for sure how much that will affect Capps. Releasing the ball 4-6 inches closer to the plate with his old delivery was a major advantage. Don’t sleep on Brad Hand. He’s the guy I want in the SD pen especially in SVHLD leagues.

7) Either Michael Pineda or Robbie Ray finish as a top 20 SP

I’m going down with the ship on Pineda. Yes, he’s a two-pitch guy at this point but his slider is absolutely filthy and hitters can’t get good wood on it. The whiffs/swing on the Slider last year was 46.2%. Forty freaking six. Nearly every other swing missed the ball. Robbie Ray’s slider was just as good at 43.5%. Both of these two have incredible stuff but have yet to be able to fully harness it. Pineda is currently the 48^th SP off the board and Ray is the 57^th. Both possess incredible upside.

 

Name	K%	BB%	HR/FB	SwStr%	ERA	xFIP
Michael Pineda	27.4	7	17	14.1	4.82	3.3
Robbie Ray	28.1	9.2	15.5	11.6	4.9	3.45

Both have a HR problem and a bit of a BB problem but they do everything else so well. HR/FB isn’t a stable number so any positive regression could lead to a major improvement in ERA. I love both of these guys this year.

8) Corey Seager finishes outside the top 25 on the hitter player rater

I love Corey Seager but I think the expectations have grown a bit too much. Seager was the 36^th overall hitter last year with a fantasy line of 26 HR/ 105 R/ 72 RBI/ 3 SB and a .308 AVG. How much do we realistically think he can improve those numbers? He’s currently going as the 15^th overall hitter who finished 21 spots lower than that last year with numbers that are going to be hard to increase. If Seager is really going to be a top 15 overall hitter he either has to run more or has to bump his HR output by 5-10 HR. I’m not sure either of those are likely given his past. He may see a bump in RBI this year but that’s certainly going to come with a loss in R. Seager is pretty safe but I don’t think he’s going to finish close to where he’s going.

9) Josh Reddick out earns his draft spot (91^st) by at least 40 spots

Reddick is currently going as the 91^st OF which seems crazy given how good the Astros offense could be this year. Reddick is projected to bat 8^th but the Astros are so good top to bottom that it might not be a major ding to his R and RBI totals. Reddick has always been a good base stealer and that shouldn’t change. Where Reddick truly has upside is in power. The 32 HR season from 2012 isn’t happening again but Reddick is going from the 4^th worst LH HR park to the 10^th best. He could easily get to 25 with 8 SB and decent R and RBI totals. If he adds in a 270 AVG he should easily make the top 50 for OF.

10) Trevor Story leads all SS in HR

This is basically a prediction that Story beats Machado who had 37 HR last year. Story led all of MLB in average fly ball distance last year. His 23.7% HR/FB is probably not a sustainable rate but he should get a full seasons worth of PA so a drop in HR/FB shouldn’t reduce his actual HR output. I think Story can get into the mid 30s this year (maybe getting all 30 when SD comes to Coors) which puts him a small dip in power from Machado away from holding the SS dinger crown.

Positional Rankings Update 1/26

Updated positional rankings for 2017.

Players to Target: Shin-soo Choo and Carlos Gomez

A 34-year-old coming off an injury plagued 2016 and a 31-year-old who hasn’t been a fantasy asset since 2014? Yep.

These two are similar so I’m lumping them together. They are both on the down swing of their careers but they can both still have value, potentially significant value. They also both happen to play for Texas in a very good offense park. Owners suffering from recency bias might dismiss both of them based on their full season 2016 lines, but there are plenty of positive signs for these two.

Players to Target: Josh Reddick

Josh Reddick, long a fantasy favorite of mine, is finally out of Oakland and into a good situation. Reddick has had some injury issues, but when healthy he’s a solid contributor in all five categories without a major fantasy weakness. I’m willing to gamble on the health with Reddick because his current NFBC OF ADP is 69^th (nice) and 287^th overall. This means Reddick is likely barely being drafted in 12 team leagues. I think Reddick has top 30 OF upside and I’ll be grabbing him all over if that discount holds.

Vacation

Going to be out on vacation for a bit. Probably won’t be posting anything until the week of 1/16. Updated rankings and some more players to target all on the way. 

Early NFBC ADP Analysis

A look at some of the early NFBC ADP data.

Players to Target: David Dahl

Oh David Dahl, how I love you. Power. Speed. Coors. What more could you possibly want?

Players to Target: Tim Anderson

I have to start this post off with a caveat: Tim Anderson’s value takes a major hit in OBP leagues (his BB rate last year was 3%) so take that into account if you play in one of those leagues. Having gotten that out of the way, I love Tim Anderson for 2017. In 431 PA in 2016 Anderson logged a solid fantasy line of 9 HR, 57 R, 30 RBI, 10 SB and a .283 AVG. Tim Anderson will be an up and down player in 2017 but he is virtually guaranteed to be the full-time SS and may end up in a very favorable lineup situation. Overall Anderson has a solid shot at being a top 15 or even top 10 SS and can be had at a late round price.

Players to Target: Maikel Franco

In 2016, Maikel Franco finished as the 19^th 3B (according to ESPN’s player rater) with a fantasy line of 25 HR, 67 R, 88 RBI, 1 SB and a .255 AVG. Not bad but certainly not cracking the top 10 at 3B with that line. Franco is a near-zero in steals but has upside in every other category. Franco definitely needs to make some adjustments but the foundation is there for a 2017 breakout.

SPs to Target for 2017

These three pitchers aren’t exactly sleepers but they are three guys I expect to own in a lot of leagues next year. All three have an elite K rate, an average to poor BB rate and an HR problem. Sounds like three guys to really get on board with right? However, if we look at year to year correlations for these stats it might start to make sense.

Metric	Y2Y Correlation
K Rate	0.803
BB Rate	0.692
HR Rate	0.39
HR/FB	-0.029

(via Fangraphs)

What this chart shows is that in terms of year to year correlation, K rate is strong, BB rate and HR rate are moderate and HR/FB has no correlation.  Based on that we can reasonably assume that these players will maintain their elite K rates and will potentially see fluctuations in their BB and HR rates (with HR rate having the highest chance at fluctuation). FIP and xFIP are the best metrics we have that combine these three stats. Given that these are the three stats that the pitcher controls the most, FIP and xFIP should always take precedence over ERA. The main difference between FIP and xFIP is that xFIP takes the league average for HR rate because it assumes (as mentioned above) that HR rate tends to fluctuate and typically regresses back to the mean. What we have are three pitchers who should continue to strike out batters, and might see some positive regression in the HR and BB department. The three pitchers I’m talking about are Jon Gray, Robbie Ray and the SP I can’t quit Michael Pineda.