Rankings

Rankings – SS

Top 30 SS for 2016

1) Carlos Correa

What else can be said about Carlos Correa? He is a 21 year old who is already a no doubter #1 SS in fantasy baseball. His combination of power and speed with a decent average puts him in a tier by himself. If we factor in that his contextual stats could be quite good it’s easy to see how Correa has already cemented a first round status.

2) Xander Bogaerts
3) Troy Tulowitzki

Some people will see Bogaerts’s 7 HR last year and refuse to draft him. This is a major mistake. Bogaerts may never hit 30 HRs, but remember that he is only 23 years old. His power will come and this could be the year he cracks 15 HRs. Last year he hit .320 which was inflated by a .372 BABIP. Bogaerts is closer to a true .290 hitter which is still fantastic given the current crop of SS. This will probably be the last year Tulo is ranked this high, but I’m willing to roll the dice one last time because of his team. As a 30 year old last year, he showed some big red flags, namely an increase to a 21.3% K rate and a drop to a 7.1% BB rate. His career numbers for those two stats are 16.4% and 9.8% respectively. It’s hard to be overly optimistic about Tulo, but given the team he could easily reach 90 RBI if he manages to stay healthy.

4) Francisco Lindor
5) Ian Desmond
6) Corey Seager

This is the last “good” group of SS and each of these guys comes with inherent risk. I think Lindor is the safest of the group which is why he leads the list. His safety comes in SBs and AVG. Lindor should steal 20 bases with ease over a full season. His .313 BA is likely unrepeatable, but he should be able to bat above .280. I think his 2015 power was a mirage and I’d project him for his 2015 total of 12 over a full 2016 season. Desmond finally found a home in Texas Desmond is still a 18+ HR/13+ SB guy but he comes with a bad BA. If he can stick in the OF, he should rack up enough R and RBI to make him worth your while even with a bad BA. I like Corey Seager, but I have to pump the brakes a bit. Projecting his 113 PAs last year over a full season is a fool’s errand. There is a lot to like about Seager, but he walked 12.4% of the time. His high over his entire professional career at one level was 10.9% across 312 PAs in A ball. It seems unlikely that a guy would suddenly start walking more against the best pitchers he has ever faced. He also had a .387 BABIP. This is all a tiny sample, but I think he is due for some growing pains this year. I think he can put up numbers similar to Desmond without the steals and with a BA in the .260s. In time Seager will likely be in the elite class of SSs but right now he is a tick below that.

7) Elvis Andrus
8) Jean Segura
9) Alcides Escobar
10) Jose Reyes
11) Marcus Semien
12) Jung-ho Kang

Andrus, Segura and Escobar won’t hit many HRs but should steal 20+ bases with decent run totals. Segura has some run upside if he can hold down the #2 spot all season but I have my doubts. I had Reyes ranked in the tier above this, but the impending suspension drops him quite a bit. If he plays he can be very valuable in Coors, but it’s hard to guess just how many games he will actually play this year. Marcus Semien actually had a pretty good year last year but it was buoyed by a really good first two months. He should be able to reach double digits in both HR and SBs with an outside chance at 20/20 if he can have a sustained run of success. I really like Kang and as long as he’s healthy he should be a good source for power.

13) Addison Russell
14) Erick Aybar
15) Ketel Marte
16) Starlin Castro
17) Brad Miller
18) Brandon Crawford

I like Addison Russel for the future but right now I’m concerned about the BA. The power is real but the question is just how low does the BA dip. If he doesn’t run to offset some of that, he’s really just a three category guy for now. Aybar and Marte are similar players. Both should steal bases and chip in a decent to good BA. Aybar is slightly ahead because he figures to bat near the top of the Atlanta order while Marte is likely bringing up the rear in Seattle. Brad Miller has never lived up to the hype, but he can log a 10 HR/10 SB season with a BA that doesn’t totally kill you. Brandon Crawford is likely going to be ranked much higher on other lists, but Crawford is unlikely to end up on any of my teams this year. He had a very impressive 21 HR last year but it was very fluky. He had a 16.2% HR/FB which is almost double his career number of 8.2%. For someone who only hit 33.5% of balls in the air, that is an impressive run of luck. According to ESPN’s HR tracker, he had four lucky HRs (tied for 2nd in MLB) and 11 just enough HRs (tied for 12th in MLB). If Crawford slips back to low teens HRs, he loses a lot of his appeal because his R and RBI totals will suffer some too. Don’t pay the 2015 price for a player who is very unlikely to reach 2015 numbers.

19) Eugenio Suarez
20) Alexei Ramirez
21) Jose Iglesias
22) Jhonny Peralta
23) Andrelton Simmons
24) Didi Gregorious
25) Jonathan Villar

Eugenio Suarez is a decent source for power but not a lot else. His BA last year was likely a bit inflated by a slightly higher than usual BABIP. Ramirez is a good source of steals and some power but the move to Petco is a bit worrisome. I covered Jose Iglesias but he is a great source for BA and could have upside in the other categories. Peralta is set to be out until June. He could provide some good pop but a thumb injury is worrisome. Jonathan Villar is going to be a drain in most categories, but off the bench he’s a guy who could steal 30 bases with playing time. Given the current state of the Brewers, he figures to see a lot of playing time.

26) Asdrubal Cabrera
27) J.J. Hardy
28) Zack Cozart
29) Adeiny Hechavarria
30) Jose Ramirez

This is a rough group and I don’t anticipate them being drafted in all but the deepest of leagues. Cabrera, Hardy and Cozart could all be decent power sources but won’t provide much else. Hechevarria could provide a decent BA and if you’re lucky some steals. Jose Ramirez won’t start this year, but he has speed and if Lindor struggles, he’s likely to get the playing time.

Intriguing Non-Ranked Guy: Jimmy Rollins, CWS

Jimmy Rollins will tank your BA but he could also provide double digits in both HR and SB. Depending on where he ends up batting in the CWS lineup, he could even chip in a decent R total. It’s not a great profile, but if you can pair him with a guy like Jose Iglesias, you can cover all 5 categories quite well.

Rankings Info

 

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