Rankings

Rankings – 3B

Top 30 3B for 2016

1) Josh Donaldson
2) Manny Machado
3) Kris Bryant
4) Nolan Arenado

Outside of OF, there might not be a better top tier on the offensive side. All four of these guys are capable of reaching 30+ HRs with a good batting average. Donaldson gets the nod because of his team. The Blue Jays have an incredible offense and while he probably won’t hit 120+ R and RBI again, he should be a good bet to get past 100 in both. Machado checks in at second coming off of a true breakout season in which he doubled his career high in HRs and more than tripled his career high in SBs. He might never reach those numbers again, but I think he’s the safest bet to produce something close to last year’s numbers again. The choice between Bryant and Arenado was a hard decision. I am confident that Arenado will win the BA category, but Bryant should be on a far better team and actually steals bases unlike Arenado. As Bryant improves, he should have as much power as Arenado and in a given year, I’d expect them to hit about the same number of HRs. All in all, any of the above four are a worthy pick and can anchor your team.

5) Adrian Beltre
6) Kyle Seager
7) Todd Frazier

How much longer can Adrian Beltre produce? We’re nearing the end but I think we can get one final four category year. Coming up on 37 this is probably it, but I’d be willing to take the risk one last time. If you do draft Beltre, be sure to invest in a decent backup 3B as it’s likely he misses time. Kyle Seager is among the most consistent fantasy options and should be a lock for 20+ Hrs, 70+ R, 80+ RBI, with an average in the .260-.270 range and 5-7 SBs. Nothing special, but he will not disappoint. I’m not a big Frazier fan, but I recognize the value: likely four category production with a BA that won’t kill you.

8) Evan Longoria
9) Maikel Franco
10) Matt Carpenter
11) Josh Harrison
12) Daniel Murphy
13) Anthony Rendon

Evan Longoria is an old favorite of mine, but at this point he is what is. He will probably never crack the top 5 at 3B but he’s safe and there’s value in that. Franco has all the potential in the world. The only thing holding him back is the team around him. If he can continue to hit for power and a good BA, he could be the guy who jumps into the top 5 at 3B in a year or two. Matt Carpenter sold out for power last year and it showed. His fly ball % jumped 6.5 points and his K rate was a career high 22.7%. A lot of people will forecast a steep drop off but there isn’t a lot saying this was a complete fluke. I don’t think he’ll hit 28 HRs again, but 20+ is reasonable. Josh Harrison is a guy I’m planting a flag on this year. I’ve already went out and acquired him in a dynasty and I plan on drafting in him redrafts. He has a good chance to finish in the top 10 for 3B and should come at a discount. Daniel Murphy doesn’t have a ton of upside, but it’s hard to fault double digit HRs with a good BA. If he indeed bats fifth, it will limit his contextual stats but the Nats lineup should be solid enough so that he isn’t a drag in R or RBI. Rendon just isn’t a guy I’m willing to invest in this year unless he comes at a major discount.

14) Pablo Sandoval
15) Matt Duffy
16) Justin Turner
17) David Wright
18) Mike Moustakas
19) Nick Castellanos
20) Jung-ho Kang

Pablo Sandoval might have a weight problem, but he can’t possibly be as bad as last year. His BABIP was nearly 40 points below his career average even though he only hit about 1% less line drives. I would expect him to hit .270 plus this year, with teens powers and decent contextual stats. Duffy and Turner are both coming off of career years. I don’t think either will repeat but I also don’t think either will fall off a cliff. Health is the big question with David Wright. He’s another guy I’m not willing to take the risk on unless it comes at a discount. Mike Moustakas finally put it all together last year. The power was legit but I’m not sold on the BA. Moving forward, I’d expect something in the .250s with the floor being significantly lower than that. Nick Castellanos and Jung-ho Kang are both guys I want on my teams this year. Castellanos has yet to eclipse 15 HRs in a single season, but the upside still exists for a lot more given that he just turned 24. Kang was having a great year in 2015 before the catastrophic injury occurred. The .344 BABIP seems high given the 22.6 LD% so maybe the BA comes down but the rest of the numbers seem completely legit.

21) Chase Headley
22) Trevor Plouffe

Headley and Plouffe don’t have much upside, but they have fairly low floors. Neither is going to hit for a high BA, but they should have decent contextual stats and some power.

23) Brett Lawrie
24) Jake Lamb
25) Yasmany Tomas

This is the late round high upside group. Lawrie just had a pretty good season in Oakland and is moving to a significantly better park. His BA will probably be a drag but there’s still 20 HR/10 SB potential. He’s worth a flyer. I wrote about Jake Lamb already and love his upside this year. Lamb’s teammate Yasmany Tomas is another worthy late round pick. Tomas was a major disappointment last year which means he will come at a discount. He still has a lot of power in his bat and could post a good BA. I think Lamb is the better option, but I wouldn’t dismiss Tomas because of his 2015.

26) Martin Prado
27) Yunel Escobar
28) Adonis Garcia
29) Lonnie Chisenhall
30) Danny Valencia

Prado and Escobar are both safe picks. Prado should benefit from a healthy Marlins lineup this year and Escobar should be the leadoff guy in LAA which could mean a ton of runs. Adnois Garcia has a lot of helium from some this offseason but I just don’t see it. He hit 10 HRs in about 200 PAs last year with a majorly inflated 21.7 HR/FB rate. He only hit 29.1% fly balls so I would expect a significantly lower HR/FB next season. 200 PAs isn’t a large sample size but projecting his 2015 stats over a full season and expecting that in 2016 is a mistake. I think Garcia will be lucky to match his 10 HRs over 500 PAs. Danny Valencia is a guy with some upside. He will be in a poor park in Oakland and his .290 BA in 2015 was very lucky (.329 BABIP and 17.2 LD%) but there’s some power there.

Intriguing Non-Ranked Guy: Mark Reynolds, Col

Mark Reynolds has 30 HR upside in Coors but likely won’t get the PAs to reach that number. He will likely be the RH component of the 1B platoon for the Rockies this year. He won’t hit 30 HRs in that roll, especially considering he’ll get the starts against Kershaw and Bumgarner. If he can wiggle any playing time away from Paulsen, or if Paulsen struggles, Reynolds could be a very good source for power. He will hurt you in BA, but properly streaming him (in Coors and when he has the platoon advantage) could limit some of the BA downside. He’s worth a shot in deep leagues.

Rankings Info

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