Rankings – 1B

Top 30 1B for 2016

1) Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt is in a tier by himself. A true 5 category contributor and at age 28, he is fully in his prime. Outside of Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt is the safest pick in fantasy baseball.

2) Miguel Cabrera
3) Anthony Rizzo
4) Jose Abreu
Just how long will Miguel Cabrera continue to produce? It was a tough decision between him and Rizzo, given Rizzo’s recent SB output, but outside of the injury Cabrera was every bit of his usual self. Abreu followed up a great 2014 with a slightly worse 2015. I don’t think we’ll see a BA above .300 but 30 HRs/80 R/100 RBI with a .280+ BA should come easily.

5) Edwin Encarnacion
6) Chris Davis
7) Joey Votto
8) Buster Posey
This group consists of big power and steady consistency. Votto and Posey might not possess the power upside of Davis and Encarnacion, but both are good bets to continue to produce at a high level. Encarnacion is now 33 and at some point he will start to decline. I’m a bit worried that this might be the year but it’s hard to pass up that power on such a high octane team.

9) Freddie Freeman
10) Adrian Gonzalez
11) Eric Hosmer
I’m not sure what to make out of any of these guys. None have particularly high ceilings but their floors are pretty high. Freeman plays on a poor team but I like his odds to contribute in four categories. Gonzalez just came off of one of his best seasons, but he’ll be 34 this year. Hosmer is a guy I can’t get away from but I think it’s finally time to admit that 25 HRs might never happen. He just hits too many groundballs. At 26 there is still some hope, but I’m not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt any longer.

12) Albert Pujols
Pujols is in a tier by himself because a lot depends on his injury status heading into the season. It’s hard to ignore the 40 HRs last year, but the likelihood of him repeating that is practically zero. If he doesn’t miss much time, he’s worth the pick, if reports aren’t promising in spring training, he plummets down this list.

13) Mark Trumbo
14) Wil Myers
15) Carlos Santana
16) Brandon Belt
This tier is my wheelhouse and I’ll be leaving most drafts with one of these guys. The upside here is hard to pass up. Trumbo should be hitting in a good lineup in a great park. 30 HRs isn’t out of the question if he can stay on the field. I wrote about Wil Myers in my Players to Target series and I am all in on him. Carlos Santana had a poor year last year and will be a hit to BA, but word is he might bat leadoff. Worst case he’ll bat 3rd or 4th and will be hitting behind a great group of OBP guys. Any bump in power could result in major gains in R and RBI. Belt is similar to Hosmer in that 20 HRs might be the most we can reasonably expect, but he brings a lot more to the table. His line drive swing results in a high BABIP and a good BA. If Belt stays healthy (big if), he could be a positive contributor in all five categories.

17) Lucas Duda
18) Justin Bour
19) Byung Ho Park
20) Mitch Moreland
Here is a group with solid power, but not a lot else. All four are worthy picks for a HR needy team. I would expect all four to notch between 20-28 HRs.

21) Mark Teixeira
22) Ryan Zimmerman
23) Pedro Alvarez
24) C.J. Cron
25) Adam Lind
26) Matt Adams
27) Stephen Vogt
28) Logan Forsythe
29) Joe Mauer
30) Chris Carter

Wrapping up with a group that isn’t particularly exciting. Teixeira and Zimmerman could both provide value, but will either play enough games to make an impact. Pedro Alvarez ended up in a great situation in Baltimore. He goes from one of the worst parks for LH power to one of the best. There’s no way to know if he’ll get every day at bats, but if he does he could eclipse 30 HRs. I’m not sure what to make of Cron, Lind, and Adams. If Lind wasn’t in Safeco, he would be a lot higher on this list. All three have upside, but all three carry enough risk to keep me away. Vogt and Forsythe finally received the opportunity last year and both made the most of it. I would expect some regression from both (particularly Forsythe with AVG and Vogt with HR). Chris Carter is a valuable pick if your team needs power. Out of the last 10 guys, he’d be the guy I’d take a flyer on. He’s in a great HR park and should get regular PAs. The opportunity for a 30+ HR season is there.

Intriguing Non-Ranked Guy: Mike Napoli, Cle

Napoli isn’t anything special, but he does have some power and could be hitting in a spot in the Indians’ order where he could rack up a decent RBI total. Napoli figures to get regular playing time which is the big reason to take a flyer on him.

Rankings Info


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