NLW, Players to Target

Players to Target – Gerardo Parra

Originally this was about Corey Dickerson, but given his trade (read: gifting) to Tampa Bay, why not highlight his new replacement Gerardo Parra. Gerardo Parra has pretty middling numbers across the board in his career with a career high in HR of only 14 and a career triple slash of .277/.326/.404. He has always played in a good home ballpark for home runs but now he will be moving into the best ballpark for lefty power. He’ll be hitting in a decent lineup and should have a chance to be a pretty valuable pick in drafts.

Last year was the year in which Parra amassed his career high in HRs, besting his previous high of 10. He had his highest career HR/FB (10.6) which is a bit higher than his career average of 7.8%. However if we remove his 2009 and 2010 in which his HR/FB was a ridiculously low 4.7% and 3.7% respectively, his career number slots somewhere in the mid to upper 8s. Over the last three years his average fly ball distance has been between 281-284 ft. It’s reasonable to think that his HR/FB might drop a bit, but remember that he’s moving to Coors for 81 games next year. Any drop in HR/FB could be offset by hitting in such a great HR park. I don’t think Parra will suddenly hit 25 HRs, but I think he can easily get into the high teens with regular playing time all but assured now.

Parra batted .291 last year with a BABIP almost exactly in line with his career (.325 vs .323). He was able to post such a good batting average because he raised his LD% up to a career high 23.6%. If he can continue to hit LDs, he could approach a .300 batting average which is becoming more and more of a rarity in today’s game.

Parra has never been a big SB guy (averaging about 12.5 a year going back to 2011). I wouldn’t suddenly expect him to steal 20 bases but he’s a pretty safe bet for 10. An 18 HR/ 10 SB hitter who can approach a .300 batting average is a very nice mid to late round pick. If we include R and RBI totals that should be decent, Parra shapes up to be a pretty good investment. Parra might even have major R and RBI upside. Right now, he is likely batting 5th or 6th which should help out his RBI total but probably hurts his R total. The ideal landing spot for his fantasy value would be the two spot. While he doesn’t quite sport the OBP to justify that move, the current occupant, Jose Reyes, isn’t a beacon of healthy and the Rockies are going to do everything in their power to move him. If the two spot opens and Parra gets moved up, he suddenly receives a major boost in both R and RBI production. Hitting in front of Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado is a great thing. I’d say there’s probably a 30% chance that he gets more than 200 PAs in the second spot, but that’s a worthy gamble considering the floor here is probably 55 R and 55 RBI.

Steamer is giving Parra a line of 12 HR, 65 R, 64 RBI, 11 SB, a .291 AVG and a.336 OBP. Not bad at all but I think there’s some upside here and I’ll give Parra 17 HR, 71 R, 78 RBI, 10 SB, a .297 AVG and a .333 OBP.

 

HR R RBI SB AVG OBP
Steamer 12 65 64 11 0.291 0.336
Spauny 17 71 78 10 0.297 0.333

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