ALE, Players to Target

Players to Target – Kevin Pillar

Kevin Pillar finished 2015 as the 23rd OF according to ESPN and put up a solid 12 HR, 76 R, 56 RBI, 25 SB, .278 AVG and .314 OBP. Pillar is also a great fielder and should be a full time CF even if guys like Dalton Pompey get called up. The great news about Pillar is that his numbers are all very repeatable.

Pillar has never been a big HR guy but has hit exactly 12 HRs a year the last three years spread across multiple levels. Last year, all 12 came at the MLB level. His HR/FB was a low 6.6% but this was in line with overall career number of 7%. Given that his HR/FB was so low, 10+ HRs seems likely for Pillar in 2016.

Given the potency of the Blue Jays lineup, the counting stats should come. I’m not sure Pillar will reach 80 R unless he somehow leads off but 65+ runs should be attainable. I feel similarly with RBI. 65+ RBI is attainable for Pillar as long as he can stay healthy. The lineup is so good top to bottom that RBI opportunities will come no matter where he bats.

Pillar’s carrying tools (outside of his defense) have always been speed and the ability to hit for average. As long as he plays 150 games, he should easily steal 20+ bags with 30 steal upside He batted .278 last year with a .306 BABIP and a 21.9 LD%. All of those numbers are reasonable for him and are absolutely repeatable.

Steamer is giving Pillar 11 HR, 61 R, 62 RBI, 17 SB, a .279 AVG and a .315 OBP which is very similar to his 2015 line. I think Pillar gets some lead off AB and I’ll give him 10 HR, 74 R, 64 RBI, 23 SB, .276 AVG, and a .319 OBP.

 

  HR R RBI SB AVG OBP
Steamer 11 61 62 17 0.279 0.315
Spauny 10 74 64 23 0.276 0.319

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