ALW, Players to Target

Players to Target – Josh Reddick

I’ll admit in advance that this one is a bit of a cop out. I think Reddick gets dealt before July and potentially even before the season starts. However he is an interesting case. Reddick excels in nothing but contributes in everything. He’s not going to get you excited on draft day but he can definitely be a valuable asset to your team. According to the NFBC data, he is currently going as the 57th OF and 216th overall. Essentially the cost to draft Reddick is minuscule but the production is quite valuable.

Reddick finished 2015 as the 35th best OF with a line of 20 HR, 67 R, 77 RBI, 10 SB, a .272 AVG and a .333 OBP. All good numbers but nothing great. In Oakland, that might be Reddick’s ceiling but if he gets traded, there could be a nice uptick across the board.

Oakland is not a great offense, ranking 14th in runs scored in 2015. Ultimately, that limits Reddick’s counting stats and the A’s lineup is not all that special. Some combination of Vogt, Bulter, Alonso and Valencia is likely to follow Reddick in the order. That leaves a lot to be desired and likely caps Reddick’s run potential. He also bats behind Billy Burns and likely Jed Lowrie. Both are valuable players but neither gets on base at a rate likely to lead to a ton of RBI opportunities. Reddick’s 2015 numbers are likely his ceiling on the A’s unfortunately. However, if we speculate some, it’s easy to see how a trade could drastically improve Reddick’s numbers.

Two teams that really need a corner OF are the Indians and Orioles. Baltimore would be the ideal scenario for Reddick and I could see him eclipsing 25 HR if he were to end up there. It would also increase his R and RBI totals as he would likely slot right into the middle of that lineup. The same goes for Cleveland. Progressive is a great park for lefty power and 25 HR would be likely there as well. I have previously fawned over Yan Gomes because of where he bats in the Tribe lineup. Imagine if we slotted Reddick into that coveted five spot. The RBI opportunities would increase significantly and I wouldn’t rule out 85+ RBI if he ended up in either location. This is obviously wild speculation, but Reddick is a pretty safe late round pick who could have massive upside if he is dealt. I’d much rather take flyer on a guy like Reddick than a complete unknown. If Reddick doesn’t get traded, he should still provide plenty of value.

Steamer is projecting Reddick for 20 HR, 67 R, 74 RBI, 7 SB, a .263 AVG and a .325 OBP. I’m just going to call my shot with this one and say Reddick gets moved in the next two months. I’ll give him a line of 26 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI, 11 SB, a .272 AVG and a .331 OBP. This might end up looking pretty bad if Reddick sticks in Oakland, but Billy Beane has to realize that the A’s can’t possibly compete this year. Reddick will make $6.575 million in his final year of arbitration and the A’s have zero chance of holding onto him when he hits free agency in 2017. Beane is all about extracting what value he can and Reddick is a prime candidate to be moved, whether it’s before the season or in July.

 

  HR R RBI SB AVG OBP
Steamer 20 67 74 7 0.263 0.325
Spauny 26 74 84 11 0.272 0.331

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